WGA Releases Q1 US Banking Industry Outlook

Whalen Global Advisors has released the latest edition of The IRA Bank Book for Q1 2024. The Bank Book includes a review of the industry’s financial performance in Q4 2023 and the outlook for Q1 2024 earnings and credit. “The key issue in credit in 2024 remains volatility,” the report notes. “Gross charge-offs on total real estate loans doubled between Q3 and Q4 2023.”

The WGA report includes a review of key financial and credit results in the industry during Q4 2023 and The IRA’s assessment of trends for Q1 2024. The report also contains the latest results for the WGA Bank Top 25 Index. 

“Market risk factors abated somewhat because of the interest rate rally since Q4 2023,” notes the report. “Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages are being written below 7% today vs 8% at the peak in the third week of October last year. The FOMC may drop short-term interest rates eventually, but the long-end of the yield curve may defy expectations for relief. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is a big and persistent seller of government debt.”

The report includes delinquency, loss given default and exposure at default for major bank loan segments. The report highlights the surging net losses in bank owned auto and credit card loans, part of a hockey stick of credit losses now visible in the bank industry data from the FDIC. The report is available to subscribers of the Premium Service of The Institutional Risk Analyst and is also available in The IRA online store.

About Whalen Global Advisors LLC

Whalen Global Advisors LLC (WGA) is a New York-based consulting, risk analytics and publishing company that focuses on financial institutions and global markets. WGA publishes The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812), including commentary on the capital markets, industry reports and company profiles. For additional information, please contact us at: info@rcwhalen.com